Recent eruptions at Bezymianny volcano — a seismological comparison

Abstract

Abstract For the past few decades, Bezymianny volcano has erupted once to twice per year. Here, I examine eight eruptive events between 2006 and 2010. This is the first time period for which proximal or broadband seismic data have been recorded at Bezymianny. Several recurring patterns are demonstrated in advance of eruptions. Eruptions are generally preceded by 12–36 h of tremor energy elevated by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude. Locatable earthquake activity is quite erratic in the days before eruptions. For eruptions of juvenile magma, however, the cumulative moment magnitude increases with the repose time since the previous eruption. Though tenuous, this relationship is statistically significant and could improve forecasts of Bezymianny eruptions. The most energetic eruptions demonstrate increasing multiplet activity in the run-up, followed by a rapid cessation at the time of eruption. When present, this behavior marks increasing pressure in the conduit system as degassing eclipses the capacity for venting. Very long period seismicity (> 20 s periods) accompanies some eruptions. These tend to be the same short-lived high-energy eruptions that exhibit multiplet precursors. Four eruptions are examined in detail to illustrate the variety in eruption mechanisms. Lava dome collapses, sustained eruptions, singular paroxysmal explosions and post-explosion lava flows occur in different combinations demonstrating that more than one eruption trigger is regulating Bezymianny. Compared to Bezymianny's fifty-year modern history, recent eruptions have been shorter-lived and separated by longer repose times. Some evidence suggests that these eruptions may be increasingly explosive—a speculation that carries significant hazard implications. If true, however, this threat is tempered by solid evidence that the most explosive eruptions are preceded by the clearest precursors, suggesting an ability to improve the already excellent eruption forecasts available for Bezymianny.