A REMOTE SENSING-BASED EXPERT SYSTEM TO STUDY THE ARAL-CASPIAN AQUAGEOSYSTEM WATER REGIME

Abstract

Historical remote measurements are used for the synthesis of a complex Theory-Information Model (TIM) describing the combined water regimes of the Aral-Caspian System (ACS) including the consideration of aquatic and climatic natural processes. The problem of stabilizing the sea levels of these two water bodies is modeled, and a solution is obtained through implementation of an expert system (including the TIM), remote measurements database, data processing sub-block, surface cover recognition sub-block, and user interface. A set of scenarios to control the ACS water regime is investigated. The role of remote sensing methods for the estimation of water balance components and synoptic situations is also evaluated. The results of this research indicate that there is a regime for ACS water control under which it is possible to stabilize the Aral and Caspian Sea levels at their 1960 level within 10 to 12 years. This would be implemented by the transport of water from the open portion of the Caspian Sea into saline lowlands and the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Gulf, located on its eastern shore, thus facilitating rapid evaporation followed by the movement of atmospheric moisture into the Aral Sea basin.