TIMING OF THE PERMIAN-TRIASSIC BIOTIC CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FROM NEW ZIRCON U/PB AGE DATA (AND THEIR LIMITATIONS)

Abstract

The most profound biotic crisis in the Earth’s history, causing the near extinction of both terrestrial and marine life, occurred at the end of the Permian period about 253 Myr ago and marks the Paleozoic–Mesozoic era boundary. The cause of this event is still a matter of vigorous debate, with both brief and catastrophic as well as gradual mechanisms having been proposed. Similar to a recent landmark study, this study uses the U–Pb method on zircons from the uppermost Permian/lowermost Triassic ash fall deposits at Meishan (Zhejiang Province, SE China) in order to examine time and rate constraints for these events. The results of both this study and previous work show that for these ash layers, the effects of Pb loss are combined with varying amounts and sources of inheritance, resulting in an age scatter which prohibits the extraction of a statistically robust age in many cases. Though the effects of Pb loss on the zircons analyzed in this study were reduced by leaching the grains in hydrofluoric acid (as opposed to commonly applied air abrasion) prior to analysis, the presence within a single ash layer of multiple generations of older xenocrysts (in many cases only slightly older than the depositional age) has made quantitative interpretation even more difficult. When these combined phenomena bias individual zircon ages by less than a percent, they are extremely difficult to deconvolute, and, if multi-grain analyses are used, can become impossible to recognize (because of the resulting age averaging). Monte Carlo simulations using actual measurements of individual zircon crystals show that age excursions due to Pb loss and xenocrystic contamination for the Meishan bentonites are easily homogenized to the point of undetectability when replicate analyses of multi-grain zircon samples are compared. Thus this study uses only high-precision analyses of single crystals, whether from our work or that of previous studies. Three main conclusions have emerged. First, our data require a significant increase in the age of the Permian–Triassic boundary by more than 2 myr compared to the previous study, which shifts the age to a value older than 253 Ma. Second, neither our data nor those from previous work can confirm or negate the possibility of a very abrupt biotic crisis. Third, even large suites of very high-quality, single-zircon U–Pb analyses for these tuffs cannot, in most cases, yield objective, reliable, and robust dates with accuracies at the sub-myr level – though the temptation to perform arbitrary selection of subsets of the analyses for that purpose is almost irresistible. The last conclusion is not an indictment of zircon U/Pb dating in general (other rocks and other zircon populations can – and do – behave very differently), and further technical advances will likely improve our ability to prepare grains or sub-grains of adequately enhanced quality for analysis. Consequently, the results of the present study strongly suggest that for problems requiring time-scale accuracy, inferences from zircon U–Pb dating must be based on sufficiently large suites of single-crystal or crystal domain, high-precision analyses (<1% error) that are realistically interpreted.