INTEGRATOR OF UNCERTAINTIES FOR PROBABILISTIC RIVER STAGE FORECASTING: PRECIPITATION-DEPENDENT MODEL
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dc.contributor.author | Krzysztofowicz R. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-11T06:59:50Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-03-11T06:59:50Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2001 | |
dc.identifier | https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=766766 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal of Hydrology, 2001, 249, 1-4, 69-85 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-1694 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.geologyscience.ru/handle/123456789/26576 | |
dc.description.abstract | The integrator is a component of the Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) which produces a short-term probabilistic river stage forecast (PRSF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). The BFS decomposes the total uncertainty about the river stage into precipitation uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainty, which are quantified independently and then integrated into a predictive (Bayes) distribution of the river stage. An analytic-numerical integrator is developed using a precipitation-dependent model for the hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP). The working of the integrator is illustrated using data from the operational forecast system (OFS) of the National Weather Service (NWS) for a 1430km2 headwater basin. Theoretical and empirical properties of the predictive distribution are demonstrated. In general, the predictive distribution is a two-component mixture; its density is asymmetric and bimodal. Effects of hydrologic and precipitation uncertainties are examined. The superiority of the precipitation-dependent model over a simpler model is illustrated. Limitations of first-second moment analyses, Monte Carlo simulation, and ensemble forecasting are pinpointed: none of these techniques can alone produce valid PRSFs. | |
dc.subject | BAYESIAN ANALYSIS | |
dc.subject | STOCHASTIC PROCESSES | |
dc.subject | STATISTICAL ANALYSIS | |
dc.subject | PROBABILITY | |
dc.subject | RIVERS | |
dc.subject | FLOODS | |
dc.title | INTEGRATOR OF UNCERTAINTIES FOR PROBABILISTIC RIVER STAGE FORECASTING: PRECIPITATION-DEPENDENT MODEL | |
dc.type | Статья |
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