Abstract:
The estimation of the seismically dangerous zones of Kamchatkaand
Greece for the nearest years is given in this report on the basis of joint application of
MEE (Map of expected earthquakes) algorithm and of RTL prognostic parameter.
MEE algorithm is based on the analysis of such precursors as b-value, densityof
seismogenic faults, number of weak earthquakes, released seismic energy and is
used for intermediate-term prediction of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Many year's statistics
of using MEE algorithm in various seismically active areas show that up to
80% of M > 5.5 earthquakes occur in the zones selected by this algorithm with the
P(D1|K) = 70% conditional probability. The square of the selected zones is no
more than 30-35% of the analyzed seismically active area. On the other hand the
algorithm RTL is based on detecting of seismic quiescence and foreshockactivation
and is used for intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquake (M > 7). Joint
application of these two algorithms allows making a prediction of strong earthquakes.
