GLOBAL CLIMTE OSCILLATIONS OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS

Abstract

It is widely accepted now that the anthropogenic impact is mainly responsible for current climatic changes. It is considered that this factor determines an almost global temperature growth, as well as intensity and frequency of many climatic phenomena, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño, and others. In this connection, a special technique and several climatic indices potentially sensitive to the results of human activity were proposed for detecting various climatic changes. The analysis of most known indices performed in this work shows that their dynamics is dominated by an approximately 60-yr-long oscillation, which is likely uncontrolled by the anthropogenic influence. The contribution of this oscillation to the global temperature was maximal during the 1990s. Since its magnitude is commensurate to the linear trend of global temperature changes, one can expect the global warming trend to be interrupted during the next few decades, similar to what was observed in the 1940s-1970s.