MODELING AND FORECASTING OF THE RADIATION SITUATION IN RIVERS IN THE AREA OF THE CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT

Abstract

The need to plan water protection measures in the 30-km accident zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant [1] has made it necessary to forecast second radioactive pollution of rivers produced by the leaching and washoff of radionuclides from polluted drainage basins during rain-caused floods and springtime high water. The unique way in which this pollution was produced makes it impossible to employ data on the migration of radionuclides of global origin for this purpose. It has therefore been necessary to develop an appropriate mathematical model. The model was used to determine the amount of experimental investigative work needed in the accident zone and in the laboratory, and in addition made it possible to derive the necessary forecasts for the long-lived radionuclides 90Sr and 137Cs, which present the greatest hazard in the water bodies and river courses.