STATISTIC ESTIMATION OF THE MAXIMUM POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE FOR THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

Abstract

The Bayesian approach is used to estimate main seismic parameters: Mmax - maximum possible regional magnitude; λ - seismic-activity rate; and b - slope of the plot for the magnitude frequency law. The suggested method allows one to use catalogs with varying lower magnitude completeness threshold as well as historical catalogs. The quantiles of Mmax(T) are estimated, where Mmax(T) is the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that will occur in a future time interval T. Also, the magnitude uncertainties (standard deviations) are established. The method is applied to estimate Mmax and Mmax(T) in the Baikal Rift Zone. This estimation gives Mmax = = 8.07±0.47.