A PROBABILISTIC INTERPRETATION OF THE LAW OF EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE: CASE STUDY OF THE KAMCHATKA REGION

Abstract

It is well known that earthquake recurrence plots are well described by the exponential function N (k) = A0 · , where A0 is the seismic activity reduced to surface and time units; k = is the energy class; and γ is the angle factor. The relation = – γ(k – k0) on a double-logarithmic scale appears as straight lines. However, for the given time interval, A0 is a function of coordinates and, therefore, a variable value even in a single seismoactive region but in different unit areas. Therefore, the arising challenge is to find such a representation of the law of recurrence (LR), in order to make it statistically invariable in terms of the transformation of coordinates. Such an opportunity appears in the case of expansion of theoretic-probabilistic concepts on event catalogues of random seismoactive regions. The present paper is devoted to the solution of this problem on the basis of a Kamchatka catalogue case study and the discussion of certain relationships revealed by the analysis of seismic regimes based on the proposed method.