THE CENTRAL KURIL "GAP": STRUCTURE AND SEISMIC POTENTIAL

Abstract

The method of revealing probable areas of future strong earthquakes (“seismic gaps”) was first proposed with the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc (KKA). The method is based on the following principle: sources of the strongest (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes have a significant tendency not to overlap each other. Based on this principle, potential areas of future earthquakes (seismic gaps) were established with a probability of 0.8–0.9. They were located in the south-western, northeastern, and central parts of the arc.