WHY IS EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH NOT PROGRESSING FASTER?

Abstract

As a physical phenomenon, earthquakes must be predictable to a certain degree. However, the problem is dif®cult, becausethe source volume inside the earth is inaccessible to direct observation and because the most important parameter, the stresslevel,cannotbemeasureddirectly.Also,seismologyissuchayoungsciencethatthecauseofearthquakeswasdiscoveredinthe1960s only. Advanced seismograph networks as well as modern techniques to measure crustal deformations, such as the GlobalPositioning System .GPS) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry technique .InSAR), have come on line onlyrecently, and only in Japan are they deployed with the densities necessary for signi®cant advances in the understanding ofthe rupture initiation process. In addition, no real program for earthquake prediction research exists in the United States, largelybecause funding agencies and peer reviewers shy away from a ®eld in which unprofessional, but motivated individuals areactive. Although claims of successful predictions are often not justi®ed, a few correct predictions have been made. Most ofthese had time-windows of years, but some were accurate to days and allowed preparatory actions. To make signi®cantprogress,wemustlearnhowtoconductrigorousscienceina®eldwhereamateurscannotbediscouragedtoventure.Leadershipis necessary to raise the funding to an adequate level and to involve the best minds in this promising, potentially extremelyrewarding, but controversial research topic.