MODEL DIAGNOSTICS OF VARIATIONS IN METHANE EMISSIONS BY WETLANDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY BASED ON REANALYSIS DATA

Abstract

This work is dedicated to model assessments of variations in methane emissions into the atmosphere by terrestrial ecosystems for different regions and the Earth as a whole based on variations in the near-surface temperature of the atmosphere and precipitation derived from the reanalysis data for the second half of the 20th century. The statistically significant general trend of increase in methane fluxes from bog systems into the atmosphere under global warming is diagnosed. Recently, interactive blocks of the carbon cycle have been introduced into global 3D climatic models that are used for assessing natural and anthropogenic environmental variations. These works revealed the positive feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle. Such an approach leads to additional increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as compared with the assessments without regard for the influence of climatic variations on fluxes between the atmosphere and the underlying surface.