DAILY BAIKAL WATER LEVEL VARIATIONS BEFORE EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

Long-continued observations of water-level fluctuations and air pressure changes in the southern Baikal area were compared with the Baikal seismicity to reveal periods when the fluctuations had much greater amplitudes prior to earthquakes, not consistent with the causative atmospheric changes. The date of a future earthquake is indicated by a lower amplitude of the fluctuation relative to the total pressure change. The durations and magnitudes of increased amplitude changes are functions of earthquake energy and epicentral distance (r = 0.76). These results can be used for intermediate-term earthquake prediction in the Baikal region.