A LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECAST FOR THE KURIL-KAMCHATKA ISLAND ARC FOR THE PERIOD 2006-2011 AND A SUCCESSFUL FORECAST OF THE MS = 8.2 MIDDLE KURIL EARTHQUAKE OF NOVEMBER 15, 2006

Abstract

Results are reported from continuous long-term earthquake prediction work for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc using the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. A five-year forecast (April 2006 to April 2011) for all portions of the Kuril-Kamchatka seismogenic zone is presented. According to this, the most likely locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes include the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii area where the probability of an M ≥ 7.7 earthquake causing ground motions of intensity VII to IX in the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii is 48% for 2006–2011, and the area of Onekotan I. and the Middle Kuril Islands where the probability of an M ≥ 7.7 earthquake was estimated as 26.7%. The forecast was fulfilled on November 15, 2006, when an Ms= 8.2, Mw = 8.3 earthquake occurred in the Middle Kuril Islands area. An updated long-term forecast is presented for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from November 2006 to October 2011. These forecasts provide good reasons to enhance seismic safety by strengthening buildings and structures in Kamchatka.