IS IT POSSIBLE TO FIND A SOLAR SIGNATURE IN THE CURRENT CLIMATIC WARMING?

Abstract

This paper investigates whether it is possible to find a solar signature in the current Earth's climatic warming. The attempt seems audacious as, on one hand, solar output variability on the atmosphere is far to be understood, and on the other hand, there is evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years can be attributed to human activities. However, series of the annual global average temperature, from 1861 up to now are available, showing periods of warming and cooling that are statistically significant. From recent findings, it is also known that solar irradiance shows a variability and can be modeled today with a good accuracy over the last century. The idea was to compare the likelihood linear trends shown in the climatic data with those of the irradiance, during same well defined time ranges. Changes from 1861 to 1975 show an unexpected remarkable correlation, whereas the period 1976-2000 completely deviates from the previous analysis. The 1861-1975 set of data supports the suggestion of an influence of solar irradiance on global climate, which was checked as a natural forcing: the response is found to be λ = 0.46 °C/W m-2, a quite reasonable value, bearing in mind the imprecision in the irradiance modeling. This analysis is also discussed in the scope of other forcings and uncertainties in the data. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.