Modeling a Potential Collapse on Koryaksky Volcano and Assessing the Volcanic Hazard for the Elizovo–Petropavlovsk Agglomeration, Kamchatka

Abstract

Simulation of a potential collapse on Koryaksky Volcano showed the most likely direction of movement for a debris avalanche. The periodic fumarolic activation of the volcano provides evidence of the circulation of meteoric waters and of favorable conditions for replacement of the bedrock in the volcanic edifice resulting in landslide deposits. Satellite data were used to study surface ground deformation. The northeastern slopes of Koryaksky are rising relative to the subsiding southwestern slopes. Recalling that Koryaksky volcano stands at a distance of 10 km from Avachinsky Volcano which has produced massive explosive debris deposits during its history, the present study is of utmost urgency. The Elizovo–Petropavlovsk agglomeration (which includes the town of Elizovo and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, as well as adjacent population centers in Elizovo District), which is in immediate vicinity of Koryaksky Volcano, harbors more than a half of all population of Kamchatka, as well as facilities that produce over half of all income in the region. Consequently, the assessment of naturally occurring processes on the volcano with a view to further development of a plan to minimize their negative impact is critically important for the economy of Kamchatka.