HYPERBOLIC LAWS OF PRECURSORY SEISMICITY BEFORE THE NOVEMBER 12, 1964, SHIVELUCH ERUPTION

Abstract

The November 12, 1964, eruption on Shiveluch Volcano is used as an example to describe a mathematical technique for modeling the precursory seismicity of similar events. The technique is efficient in revealing empirical patterns in the evolution of natural processes. When this technique was applied to the precursory and coeruptive seismicity of the November 12, 1964, eruption on Shiveluch Volcano, the seismicity rate increase was found to obey a nonlinear hyperbolic law of the form x = Xo + B/(To-t)Β. Pilot calculations show that, when certain limitations are borne in mind, this technique for modeling the precursory processes of volcanic eruptions is even now a promising tool for predicting the time of volcanic eruptions.