DECELERATING PRECURSORY SEISMICITY IN VRANCEA

Abstract

Preshock seismic excitation followed by seismic quiescence has been observed in the seismogenic region of strong shallow mainshocks. The strain released by such preshocks is decelerating with the time to the mainshock and is fitted by a power-law with a power value larger than unit. This model is tested in the present work for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea region, generated in an isolated seismogenic zone proper for such testing. A backward application of this "decelerating preshock strain" model for the case of 4.3.1977 (M = 7.5) earthquake, for which reliable data are available, shows a good fit of the power-law pattern to the seismic activity preceding the main shock. The occurrence rate of recent intermediate-depth shocks in Vrancea indicates that this region is currently in a state of decelerating seismic deformation, which may lead to the generation of a strong intermediate-depth mainshock there at about the beginning of the third decade of the present century. The respective uncertainties are unknown due to lack of previous relative studies. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.