STRATEGIES IN THE PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

The prediction problem of a stochastic point process in terms of loss function γ is considered. Losses depend on prediction errors: , the fraction of failures-to-predict; and τ̊, the fraction of alarm time. The structure of γ-optimal prediction strategies for some functions γ is described. This allows analysis of the announced prediction of strong earthquakes in the southern part of the San Andreas fault. We consider (, τ̊) as a property of prediction strategy and set problems on the description of ‘prediction capability’ and comparison of prediction algorithms.In addition, the distribution of empirical prediction errors for the renewal process model and the type of attenuation of inter-event time distribution, are considered.