PRECURSORY PHASES, SEISMICITY PRECURSORS, AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN KAMCHATKA

Abstract

Variations of several seismicity parameters during the precursory periods of large Kamchatka earthquakes of 1996-1997 were investigated. The successive phases of clustering, quiescence, and foreshock activity culminated in the December 5, 1997, magnitude 7.7, earthquake in the southern Gulf of Kamchatka. The June 21, 1996, earthquake occurred in the southern Gulf of Avacha during a seismicity quiescence that still continues. It is shown that well-substantiated real-time intermediate-term forecasts of earthquakes with magnitudes 7 or greater can be made using a routine Kamchatkan earthquake catalog and an RTL predictive algorithm.