ON THE PREDICTION OF THE TRANSALAY EARTHQUAKE OF 1983

Abstract

The earthquake under consideration was similar in origin to other strong tremors registered in the Karakul-Momuk fault zone. They all fully reflected the geologic conditions of earthquake generation in the zone. The fact that the 1983 earthquake occurred in a seismic window between the foci of previous quakes has been confirmed by a number of investigators. On the whole, this is a routine example of the prediction of the specific place and characteristics of a destructive shock, using the seismotectonic method of seismic zoning based on the natural laws of the generation of strong earthquakes. On the basis of the universal order of generation of strong earthquakes previously noted, it can be supposed that the next tremors of great magnitude in the Karakul-Momuk fault zone may occur predominantly where they have not yet been recorded, at least not during the brief known historical time period.