THE SOUTH BAIKAL GEODYNAMIC TESTING GROUND: STRATEGY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Abstract

A new conceptual approach has been proposed and substantiated for solving the problem of earthquake prediction and organization of monitoring on the South Baikal geodynamic testing ground. The new concept takes into account first of all general geodynamic factors leading to the appearance of foci of metastable state in the Earth's crust. It has been shown that of great importance are regional variations in the stress state caused by the processes of redistribution of crustal stresses during seismic activity in the region as well as by more distant seismogeodynamic processes on interplate boundaries. It is supposed that with time the physics of a focus should give way to the physics of sufficiently large focal zones. One of the main factors determining the seismic properties of a medium is its block structure. Hence, both experimental and theoretical studies are necessary to clear up the behavior of dynamic processes in such block geosystems.