Dike model for the 2012–2013 Tolbachik eruption constrained by satellite radar interferometry observations

Abstract

Abstract A large dike intrusion and fissure eruption lasting 9 months began on November 27, 2013, beneath the south flank of Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia. The eruption was the most recent at Tolbachik since the Great Tolbachik Eruption from 1975 to 1976. The 2012 eruption was preceded by more than 6 months of seismicity that clustered beneath the east flank of the volcano along a NW–SE trend. Seismicity increased dramatically before the eruption, with propagation of the seismicity from the central volcano conduit in the final hours. We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to compute relative displacement images (interferograms) for {SAR} data pairs spanning the eruption. We use satellite {SAR} data from the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT-2 and from the Italian Space Agency's COSMO-SkyMed missions. Data are modeled first through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo solution for a single tensile dislocation (dike). We then use a boundary element method that includes topography to model a distributed dike-opening model. We find the best-fitting dike dips 80° to the {WNW} with maximum opening of 6–8 m, localized in the near surface and more broadly distributed in distinct regions up to 3 km beneath the surface, which varies from 1 to 2 km elevation for the eruptive fissures. The distribution of dike opening and its correspondence with co-diking seismicity suggests that the dike propagated radially from Tolbachik's central conduit.