STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD PARAMETERS: MAXIMUM POSSIBLE MAGNITUDE AND RELATED PARAMETERS

Abstract

The problem of statistical estimation of earthquake hazard parameters is considered. The emphasis is on estimation of the maximum regional magnitude, Mmax, and the maximum magnitude, Mmax(T), in a future time interval T and quantiles of its distribution. Two estimators are suggested: an unbiased estimator with the lowest possible variance and a Bayesian estimator. As an illustration, these methods are applied for the estimation of Mma x and related parameters in California and Italy.